By Diego Oré
TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) -Hondurans will go to the polls on Sunday to vote in a tightly fought presidential election beset by heated accusations of fraud in one of Latin America’s poorest countries.
The November 30 election remains a toss-up, with polls showing a virtual tie among the top three candidates: former defense minister Rixi Moncada of the ruling leftist LIBRE party; former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Asfura of the conservative National Party; and television host Salvador Nasralla of the centrist Liberal Party.
The Organization of American States and the U.S. State Department have both raised concerns about the electoral process and said they are monitoring it closely.
Moncada often refers to Nasralla and Asfura as “puppets of the oligarchy” while they have labeled her a “communist” and criticized her close ties with Cuba and Venezuela, two countries mired in deep economic and human rights crises.
Whichever candidate wins a simple majority will govern the country between 2026 and 2030. But with the polls showing the candidates neck and neck, political analysts fear more than one could claim victory.
“(That) could provoke disturbances in the streets, and the institutions that should be calling for certainty, sanity, and prudence aren’t helping with that,” said political analyst Henry Salinas, based in the capital Tegucigalpa.
The presidential candidates have offered few concrete plans to solve the main problems plaguing the country, drug trafficking, corruption and poverty, which affects six out of every 10 Hondurans.
Both Asfura and Nasralla have said they could resume diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which the government severed in March 2023. The move would represent the biggest diplomatic setback in the region for China in decades.
A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Honduras said in a statement on X last week that Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of China’s territory. He urged Honduran politicians to act “prudently” on the Taiwan issue and “not to infringe upon China’s sovereignty in any way.”
INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION
Honduras, with a population of 11 million people, has a long history of corruption and election-related disputes.
In 2009, then-president Manuel Zelaya was overthrown in a military coup. Zelaya is the husband of Honduras’ current president, Xiomara Castro, whose rise to power in 2022 marked the end of more than a hundred years of two-party dominance in Honduras.
Former President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party, who served two consecutive terms from 2014 to 2022, is currently imprisoned in the U.S. on a drug trafficking conviction.
Tensions have risen in Honduras in recent weeks, matched by growing international scrutiny of the election.
In addition to the president, voters will elect all 128 members of Congress and thousands of local officials.
On November 11, the OAS expressed concern about the electoral process, stating that it is the responsibility of Honduran authorities to guarantee the autonomy and independence of election officials.
A day later, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau warned on X that the U.S. is “closely monitoring the situation” and called on “electoral authorities and the military to adhere scrupulously and faithfully to the laws and Constitution of Honduras.”
Landau said the U.S. would “respond swiftly and decisively to anyone who undermines the integrity of the democratic process.”
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has been explicit about its desire to exert greater influence in the Western Hemisphere, including threatening military action in Venezuela and Mexico.
VOLATILITY AT HOME
The declarations about Honduras come amid weeks of volatility in the Central American country.
Honduras’ Attorney General’s Office, aligned with the ruling LIBRE party, has accused the opposition parties of planning to commit voter fraud, a claim they deny. They counter that LIBRE is trying to manipulate the popular will.
Prosecutors also opened an investigation into audio recordings that allegedly show a high-ranking National Party politician discussing plans with an unidentified military officer to influence the election. The alleged recordings, which the National Party says were created using artificial intelligence, have become central to Moncada’s campaign.
“If they try to touch us or commit fraud, they will see us erupt like the biggest volcano in history,” the leftist candidate said during a campaign event in mid-November.
Deepening the electoral crisis, the Armed Forces asked Honduras’ National Election Council to give them copies of the tally sheets on election day, which violates Honduran law.
(Reporting by Diego Oré in Mexico City and Laura García in Tegucigalpa; Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in Taipei; Editing by Ana Isabel Martínez and Bill Berkrot)
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