By Nolan D. McCaskill
WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) – Democrats were more bullish on their chances of recapturing control of the U.S. House of Representatives in next year’s midterms, they said on Wednesday, after gaining ground in solidly Republican Tennessee in this week’s off-cycle election.
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in the middle Tennessee matchup on Tuesday, but his 9-point margin of victory was far narrower than Republican President Donald Trump’s 22-point romp in the same district in the 2024 presidential election.
Roughly three dozen races in the most competitive battleground districts are expected to determine which party will control the House for the final two years of Trump’s term, a contest that is expected to be closely fought.
Republicans have a favorable Senate map to maintain control of the chamber in next year’s elections. Democrats would need to hold seats in competitive states, including two Trump won, and flip four Republican-held seats to win the majority.
For Republicans, Van Epps’ victory shifts the narrative from last month’s double-digit gubernatorial election losses in Virginia and New Jersey and pads the party’s 219-213 House majority, albeit temporarily.
Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia will resign her seat on January 5, and elections to fill two Democratic vacancies in Texas and New Jersey are set for January 31 and April 16, respectively.
DEMOCRATS HAVE OUTPERFORMED IN 2025 SPECIAL ELECTIONS
Democratic candidates in special congressional elections this year had outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 margins in those districts by an average of 18 points heading into Tuesday’s race.
Behn, a progressive who was branded by Republicans as a radical who hates Nashville and country music, outraised her opponent and focused her message on affordability. Republicans poured millions of dollars into holding the seat, and several high-profile Republicans campaigned with Van Epps on Monday.
“It was shocking to me that Democrats dramatically overperformed in a district that Donald Trump had just won by 22 points,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters on Wednesday.
House Democrats’ campaign arm said Tuesday’s election proved that several more Republican-held districts thought to be less competitive are “undoubtedly” in play.
“Democrats are on offense not just in the standard swing districts but in red terrain across the country,” said Madison Andrus, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
REPUBLICAN REACTION MEASURED
Republican leaders were more measured in their reactions. Representative Richard Hudson of North Carolina, who chairs House Republicans’ campaign arm, praised Van Epps, a West Point graduate and combat veteran, on his victory.
Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said Van Epps’ election showed “voters want leaders who deliver for hardworking Americans, not far-left candidates who hate the very people they claim to represent.”
Tuesday’s results are representative only of voters in the district for the unusually timed December election. But it continues a trend seen in other races nationwide that suggests Democrats will enter 2026 in a favorable environment to win back control of the chamber as voters remain concerned over the cost of living.
Matt Whitlock, a former senior adviser to Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, said Tuesday’s race “is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs” for his party.
Van Epps had a different takeaway. “Running from Trump is how you lose,” he said. “Running with Trump is how you win.”
(Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskillEditing by Bill Berkrot)
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