By Christy Santhosh
Dec 4 (Reuters) – About a quarter of Americans enrolled in Obamacare health plans said they would go without insurance in 2026 if COVID-era government subsidies are not extended past this year and premium payments double, a poll by health-research firm KFF found.
The poll also found that most of the 24 million people covered by the Affordable Care Act health insurance program are hoping lawmakers can agree on an extension of the subsidies put in place during the pandemic.
About 84% of enrollees believe Congress should extend the enhanced subsidies, including nearly 95% of Democrats, about eight in 10 independents and some seven in 10 Republicans, the poll found.
The subsidies were at the core of the recent record-long federal government shutdown. Democrats, who support an extension of the President Joe Biden-era enhanced tax credits, and Republicans, who say they want major changes to the program, are expected to vote on them this month with the outcome uncertain.
President Donald Trump had said he supported giving funds directly to consumers to buy insurance but also raised a two-year extension of subsidies.
Big election wins by Democrats in November have left Republicans scrambling to address the issue before next year’s mid-term elections that will decide control of Congress.
Cynthia Cox, director of the ACA program at KFF, said the population of Obamacare enrollees in several swing districts could “make or break an election,” noting that their numbers far exceed the vote margin of the last Congressional contests.
The subsidies have become a key electoral issue for Republicans in some conservative states like West Virginia, underscoring their potential political impact.
PREMIUM INCREASE WOULD INFLUENCE VOTE
Premium payments are expected to rise by an average of 114%, according to KFF, as both insurers and patients brace for the uncertainty associated with the large cost hikes and possible enrollment declines in 2026.
According to KFF’s poll, a $1,000 increase in overall healthcare expenses, including co-pays, deductibles, and premiums, would influence decisions on whether to vote and for which party next year for half of the marketplace plan enrollees.
Among independents, seen as by far the most important contingent for swinging close elections, more than four in 10 said they would blame Trump, a third would blame Congressional Republicans, and about one in four would blame Democrats for the $1,000 hike, KFF found.
“The poll shows the range of problems marketplace enrollees will face if the enhanced tax credits are not extended in some form,” KFF CEO Drew Altman said in a statement. “And those problems will be the poster child of the struggles Americans are having with healthcare costs in the midterms if Republicans and Democrats cannot resolve their differences.”
Officials from several U.S. states say Americans relying on these subsidies are holding off enrolling in anticipation of the December vote that could still provide an 11th-hour rescue for the program.
Overall, about 40% of marketplace enrollees are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, including about one in four who identify with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, KFF found.
The survey was conducted by phone and online from November 7 to November 15 and based on a nationally representative sample of 1,350 U.S. adults ages 18 to 64 who purchase coverage on the Obamacare marketplaces.
(Reporting by Christy Santhosh in Bengaluru; editing by Caroline Humer and Bill Berkrot)
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