MOSCOW, Dec 26 (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank said on Friday that it will halve its own forex interventions from the new year in an expected move that will take away some support for the rouble in 2026, with economists expecting the rouble to weaken.
The combined forex sales by the central bank and the Finance Ministry were one of the factors behind the rouble’s strength in 2025 and were criticized by exporting firms, whose earnings were hit by the rouble’s 45% rally this year.
The central bank said that in the first half of 2026 it will sell foreign currency worth 4.62 billion roubles ($59.81 million) a day, down from 8.94 billion roubles now.
The move will reduce the state’s overall forex sales, which include the central bank’s own operations and transactions on behalf of the budget reserve National Wealth Fund (NWF), by 30% to 10.22 billion roubles from January 12.
The new volumes will be in force until January 15 when the Finance Ministry will announce new monthly targets for the NWF, which buys forex when the budget has excess energy revenues and sells it to cover the deficit when energy revenues are low.
“This is one of the factors that we expect will contribute to the weakening of the rouble, along with declining export prices and the easing of the central bank’s monetary policy,” said T-Bank’s chief economist Sofya Donets.
The government refrained from tapping the NWF to cover the deficit in the second half of 2025, preferring domestic borrowing instead, despite monthly oil and gas revenue expected to hit the lowest since August 2020 this month.
It is expected to stick to this policy in 2026, provided there is no further fall in energy revenues as a result of a decline in global prices or more Western sanctions in case talks to reach a peaceful settlement in Ukraine yield no results.
The rouble did not show a significant reaction, strengthening by 0.4% to 77.7 against the U.S. dollar in over-the-counter trade and trading flat at 11.04 against China’s yuan at the Moscow Exchange.
(Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Darya Korsunskaya; Writing by Anastasia Teterevleva and Gleb Bryanski)
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