By Elisha Bala-Gbogbo
ABUJA, Dec 30 (Reuters) – Nigeria’s central bank forecasts 4.49% economic growth and inflation easing to an average 12.94% in 2026, citing stable forex markets and rising oil output as reforms take hold, its latest outlook showed on Tuesday.
The forecast signals cautious optimism after two years of sweeping reforms by President Bola Tinubu’s government, with the bank betting on structural changes in oil, tax and foreign exchange markets to sustain growth and disinflation.
In its 2026 outlook, the central bank projects stronger non-oil growth and sturdier external buffers even as fiscal deficits and external vulnerabilities linger.
“The growth prospect in 2026 is positive on account of continued gains from broad-based structural reforms… and improved stability in the exchange rate,” the central bank report said.
Easing monetary policy would “add impetus to growth following the anticipated reduction in the cost of lending”, it added.
Nigeria’s central bank kept its key rate at 27% in November’s year-ending meeting, opting to let inflation cool further, but trimmed the deposit rate – a vote of confidence in the economy.
The move surprised economists, who had forecast a 100 basis-point cut after September’s first rate reduction since 2020.
The bank expects headline inflation, which has averaged around 21.26% in 2025, to plunge next year as easing food and fuel prices, coupled with forex stability, rein in cost pressures.
Inflation slowed for the eighth straight month in November to 14.45%.
The outlook pegs oil, Nigeria’s key export, at $55 a barrel, an official rate near 1,400 naira per dollar, and oil output at around 1.50 million barrels per day.
Fiscal spending is expected to stay expansionary, with a deficit of 12.14 trillion naira, or 3.01% of GDP, funded largely through domestic borrowing, the report said.
The bank sees external reserves climbing to $51.04 billion and a $18.81 billion current account surplus, buoyed by stronger oil and non-oil exports plus remittances.
(Reporting by Elisha Bala-Gbogbo. Editing by Jan Harvey)
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