By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Olesya Astakhova
DUBAI/LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) – OPEC+ will likely maintain steady oil output at its meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ delegates said, despite political tensions between key members Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the U.S. capture of the president of smaller producer Venezuela.
Sunday’s meeting of eight members of OPEC+, which pumps about half the world’s oil, comes after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025 — their steepest yearly drop since 2020 — amid growing oversupply concerns.
The eight – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand.
They agreed in November to pause output hikes for January, February and March. The meeting on Sunday is unlikely to make any changes to that policy, three OPEC+ sources said on Sunday.
OPEC FACING NUMEROUS CRISES
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared last month over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government.
The crisis triggered the biggest split in decades between the former close allies, as years of divergence on critical issues came to a head.
OPEC has in the past managed to overcome serious internal rifts, such as over the Iran–Iraq War, by prioritising market management over political disputes. Yet the group is facing numerous crises, with Russian oil exports pressured due to U.S. sanctions over its war in Ukraine, and Iran facing protests and U.S. threats of intervention.
On Saturday, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without saying how this would be achieved.
Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, bigger even than those of OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia, but its oil production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.
Analysts said it is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years, even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that Trump promised.
(Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by David Holmes)
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