By Noel John
Jan 5 (Reuters) – The global oil market is likely to be under pressure in 2026 as growing supply and weak demand curb prices, and traders monitor OPEC+ for policy signals and any attempts to bolster the market, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
The survey of 34 economists and analysts conducted in December forecast that Brent crude would average $61.27 per barrel in 2026, down from November’s forecast of $62.23. U.S. crude is projected to average $58.15 per barrel, below November’s estimate of $59.00.
The poll was conducted in December 2025, prior to the U.S. military operation that launched strikes on OPEC-member Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.
The poll also preceded a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, at the weekend. It left oil output unchanged on Sunday after a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the political crises affecting several of the producer group’s members, not just Venezuela.
SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED DEMAND, ANALYSTS SAY
“Holding production steady through Q1 2026 helps limit near-term volatility and provides some support to prices, but it does not materially alter the underlying surplus. Even with quotas unchanged, supply is expected to exceed demand, keeping prices under pressure through the year,” said Bridget Payne, Head of Energy Forecasting at Oxford Economics.
Brent and WTI prices declined by about 19% and 20% respectively in 2025, the most since 2020, weighed down by production boosts from OPEC+, the United States and other producers.
Following the weekend’s events in Venezuela, crude output in the country, home of the biggest global oil reserves, could gradually increase, oil analysts said, but it will take time.
“We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note dated January 4.
On average, the poll participants expect the market to be in surplus by around 0.5-3.5 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with a 0.5-4.2 mbpd surplus in the previous poll.
OPEC data published in its most recent monthly report found world oil supply would match demand closely in 2026, an outlook contrasting with projections of a substantial supply surplus from the International Energy Agency.
The highest forecast in the poll is from analysts at DBS Bank, who expect Brent crude to average $68 next year, as an OPEC+ pause and possible new sanctions on Russia could support prices. ABN Amro and Capital Economics have the lowest Brent crude price forecast for 2026 at $55 per barrel, as per the poll.
The U.S. has tightened sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, targeting tankers and supply routes to curb revenues, but analysts expect U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil to be short-lived, given U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for low gasoline prices.
Analysts noted that these sanctions are unlikely to impact the market, as OPEC+’s substantial production increase in 2025 has already ensured ample global supply.
(Reporting by Noel John, Anjana Anil and Swati Verma in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
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