Goldman Sachs sees downside risk to current 4.5% GDP forecast for China

BEIJING (Reuters) – Continued tariff escalation between the United States and China presents a downside risk to a 2025 full-year real GDP forecast of 4.5% for China, Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Goldman said an escalating tariff spat between two of the largest economies in the world also points to significant policy easing by Chinese government in the coming months to mitigate impact and stabilise growth.

But there is incremental impact on China’s GDP from another 50% tariff that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened against Chinese goods if it does not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, Goldman said in its late Tuesday note.

(Reporting by Liz Lee in Beijing and Saeed Azhar in New York; Editing by Tom Hogue)