By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports are expected to have fallen in April, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, including those on autos and steel, started to weigh, a Reuters poll found on Tuesday.
South Korea is the first major exporting economy to report trade figures each month, providing an early look at the state of global trade.
Exports out of Asia’s fourth-largest economy are forecast to have fallen 2.0% this month from a year earlier, after a rise of 3.0% last month, according to a median of 22 economists in the survey conducted on April 23-28.
That would be the first year-on-year loss in three months. In January, exports dropped 10.1%, which was aggravated by unfavourable calendar effects from the timing difference in Lunar New Year holidays.
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on auto imports from April 3, after introducing 25% duties on steel imports from March 4. His 10% blanket tariffs also took effect from April 5, while higher “reciprocal” tariffs on major countries, including 25% duties on South Korea, are currently paused for 90 days.
“The impact of tariffs is starting to show up, not only on soft data, but also on hard data,” said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities.
Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, also said: “There is a possibility that the adverse effects of tariffs are starting to come into reality.”
“And, there will be further downward pressure from upcoming tariffs on auto parts and semiconductors as well as ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China,” Chun added.
Still, the chip sector, South Korea’s biggest export item, remained resilient at least this month, likely providing some support to the headline figure, economists noted.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports fell 5.2%, as automobiles and steel products dropped 6.5% and 8.7%, respectively, whereas semiconductors rose 10.7%. By destination, shipments to the United States dropped 14.3%, while those to China fell 3.4%.
South Korean automakers are turning more pessimistic about the outlook for the sector due to tariffs, but chipmakers are optimistic amid robust demand, according to the country’s central bank.
Meanwhile, imports are projected to have fallen 7.0% in April, according to the survey. That would be the biggest drop since June 2024.
The median estimate for the country’s trade balance stood at a surplus of $4.35 billion, narrower than the previous month’s $4.92 billion.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for April on Thursday, May 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Pranoy Krishna in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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