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By Leila Miller
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -When U.S. President Donald Trump last week conditioned a hefty financial bailout of Argentina on President Javier Milei triumphing in upcoming midterm elections, he handed the country’s opposition a new rallying cry.
On social media, #PatriaOColonia – motherland or colony – trended after Trump’s comments, which came during a press conference with Milei at the White House. Jorge Taiana, a former defense minister and leading Peronist opposition candidate in the province of Buenos Aires, demanded on X that Trump “stop extorting the Argentine people!”
And outside a Buenos Aires apartment where powerful opposition leader and former President Cristina Kirchner is under house arrest for corruption, packed crowds listened to a blasted audio recording where she said that “the Argentine economy is being managed with a remote control by the Treasury of the United States.”
Trump’s potential $40 billion bailout of serial defaulter Argentina includes a signed $20 billion currency swap and a possible $20 billion facility. In Milei, Trump gets a loyal, conservative ally in an often adversarial Latin America, and possible access to natural resources like lithium and a block on growing Chinese influence in the region, said Pablo Vommaro, the executive director of CLACSO, a think tank based in Argentina.
But Trump has threatened to pull U.S. support if Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, underperforms in Sunday’s election.
When reporters asked Trump after the White House meeting whether U.S. support for Argentina hinged on a midterm victory, he responded that “if they don’t do that, we’re not going to be around very long.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said continued U.S. support depended on “good policies,” not necessarily the vote result, but Trump’s comments both rattled markets and emboldened critics.
The Peronist opposition, the movement that has dominated Argentina’s politics for more than half a century, characterized his comments as meddling in the country’s business, recalling suspicion in much of Latin America of U.S.-based organizations, from the International Monetary Fund to the Central Intelligence Agency.
Many Argentines are also wary of the Peronists after decades of economic volatility, and it is unclear to what extent Trump’s intervention will impact Sunday’s vote.
But a September/October poll by the Zuban Cordoba firm found that 60% of Argentines have a negative view of Trump. And an October poll by the Zentrix consulting firm reported that 58% of Argentines oppose the U.S. Treasury providing financial assistance to Argentina, with support or opposition largely following party lines.
The elections will determine whether Milei will be able to sustain deep austerity measures that have helped Argentina achieve a budget surplus and been welcomed by investors but increasingly put off voters, hurting Milei’s approval rating. His cratering popularity has emboldened an opposition that has recently overruled his vetoes in Congress.
Trump’s threat to revoke support had no precedent, said Lucia Vincent, a political scientist at the Universidad Nacional de San Martin. “For people who are well informed, I think this could generate a strong pushback,” she said.
A LIFELINE FOR ARGENTINA?
Milei, who has famously wielded a chainsaw to dramatize his budget-cutting fervor, has long sought to align himself closely with Trump, who in turn has called him his “favorite president.”
The White House has not said how Argentina will pay the U.S. back for the swap line, and it’s unclear whether the Milei government has already begun tapping into it to shore up its currency.
Responding to concerns that Argentina – already the IMF’s biggest debtor – could wind up owing more to the U.S., Ramiro Castiñeira, an economic consultant for Milei, said that Argentina may not need all the offered support.
He added that the aid should calm markets and help Argentina service foreign debt amounting to around $280 billion.
Market rallies after each announcement of U.S. support are getting shorter, however, while government peso purchases in the open market have not prevented the currency from sagging to a record low.
Milei’s supporters have pushed back against accusations of inappropriate intervention by Trump.
“We’re not used to political leaders of countries being so direct and sincere,” said Santiago Pauli, a congressman for Milei’s party from the southern province of Tierra del Fuego. “The government of the U.S. did not make any demand. It simply expressed its desire to keep supporting Milei and Argentina.”
Joaquin Benegas Lynch, a senate candidate for Milei’s party from the province of Entre Rios, said Argentines know “the opposition represents the past,” while acknowledging he did not know how Trump’s comments would affect voters.
PERONIST BACKLASH
Argentina’s Peronist opposition has a long tradition of slamming alleged U.S. interference, from the 1940s, when populist President Juan Peron accused a former U.S. ambassador of wanting to establish a U.S. puppet regime, to the 1990s, when Peronists criticized the “carnal relations” then-President Carlos Menem boasted with Washington.
“Today, we need to choose between Cristina and Trump, in a way,” said Manuel Valenti, a Peronist youth leader. “The election is clear. Argentine people don’t like it when they intervene in our internal affairs.”
Outside Kirchner’s apartment last Friday night, supporters cheered as she stepped out onto her balcony, adorned with a large Argentine flag.
“The suspicion is that they’re selling a part of the country,” said Fede Araneta, 47, who works in communications in Buenos Aires province and watched Kirchner from within the crowd. “What I don’t know is if we’re giving them the Iguazu waterfalls, the Islas Malvinas, oil. We don’t know what we’re giving in exchange for this.”
(Reporting by Leila Miller in Buenos Aires; Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York and Lucinda Elliott in Montevideo; Editing by Christian Plumb and Rosalba O’Brien)
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