By Anait Miridzhanian
BISSAU (Reuters) -Coup-prone Guinea-Bissau holds elections on Sunday, with President Umaro Sissoco Embalo trying to become the first leader in three decades to make it through to a second consecutive term in the West African nation.
He is facing off against 11 other candidates, the strongest of them relative political newcomer Fernando Dias who has the backing of the leader of the revolutionary party that led the fight for independence from Portugal in the 1960s and 1970s.
That party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), was barred from fielding its own candidates in the presidential and legislative elections, for the first time, after authorities said it filed papers late.
Analysts are predicting a close race between Embalo and Dias, and a runoff will be held if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote.
POLITICS IS ‘VERY POLARISED’
The small coastal nation between Senegal and Guinea saw at least nine coups or attempted coups before Embalo took office.
He says he has survived another three since then – though his opponents have accused him of manufacturing crises as an excuse for crackdowns, charges he dismisses.
He has vowed to bring stability, build more roads and expand water access if given a second term.
Dias has also promised to improve basic services, and said he will promote reconciliation and keep the military out of politics.
He has also accused Embalo of planning to undermine Guinea-Bissau’s institutions to strengthen the power of the presidency if re-elected.
Embalo has been dogged by questions about his legitimacy all year, with his opponents saying his mandate expired in February.
“The current electoral climate is extremely tense, with a very polarised political landscape,” said Lucia Bird Ruiz-Benitez de Lugo, director of the Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa.
“The opposition have significant and longstanding popular support, however their campaigning efforts have been very restricted, and it is not an even playing field as we come into the elections themselves.”
The Observatory is part of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, which has tracked Guinea-Bissau’s status as a key transit point for cocaine travelling from South America to Europe.
VOTERS WORRY ABOUT SECURITY, INSTITUTIONS
Nearly half of Guinea-Bissau’s roughly two million people are registered to vote in the elections.
Voters appeared sharply divided as the campaigns staged their final rallies on Friday.
“I’m going to vote for Umaro Cissoko Embalo so he can lead a crusade against corruption and drug trafficking,” said Saico Cande, a tailor.
“Umaro Sissoco Embalo will also find a solution to the security crisis, the food crisis and, of course, the political crisis that Guinea-Bissau has been mired in for quite some time now.”
Berta da Goya, a businesswoman, said she was troubled by Embalo’s decision to dissolve parliament after what his government described as a coup attempt in late 2023.
“I support Fernando Dias,” she said, adding that she expected him to get strong backing from the Balanta ethnic group, the country’s largest which has traditionally endorsed Dias’s Party for Social Renewal.
Polls are due to open at 0700 GMT and close at 1700 GMT. Provisional results are expected to be announced within 48 hours.
(Reporting by Alberto Dabo and Anait Miridzhanian; Writing by Robbie Corey-Boulet; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
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