By Sarah Marsh and Andreas Rinke
BERLIN, Dec 5 (Reuters) – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ability to control his unruly coalition faces a test on Friday when parliament votes on a pensions bill that stirred a revolt by younger members of his own conservative party.
Fears the revolt could lead to the bill’s defeat, endangering the survival of the coalition, appear to have eased after the opposition Left party said it would abstain. But the dispute has revived doubts about Merz’s ability to manage his party, potentially leaving him dependent on the opposition to get the package through parliament.
His broad coalition of conservatives and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) has a slender majority of 12 votes in parliament – enough theoretically to pass the legislation, which maintains current pension levels.
But the conservatives’ youth faction, which has 18 votes, says the measure perpetuates a financially unsustainable system, leaving younger generations to foot the bill. Those legislators have left it unclear which way they will vote.
The Left Party said on Wednesday it would abstain from the vote to ensure the legislation passed in order to protect pensioners from what it called “power games”. Their abstention means the measure needs fewer votes to pass.
Political analysts say infighting over the package has heightened doubt about the coalition’s ability to push through key legislation following a series of blunders this year.
But if Merz has to also rely on the opposition to pass the bill, it would feed doubts about the mammoth tasks of reforming Germany’s ailing economy, Europe’s largest, and rebuilding its long-neglected military.
“Even if the coalition wins the vote, they will hardly gain stability, because the path to forming this majority was very shaky,” said political scientist Johannes Hillje.
“If they don’t have their own majority, then we would have a coalition crisis – as a government is defined by whether it can produce its own majorities.”
Such an outcome could further boost support for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which has surged to first place in nationwide polls in recent months and is on track to make strong gains in five state elections next year.
MERZ DISAPPOINTS HIGH EXPECTATIONS
During the election campaign, Merz, who had never previously held government office, railed against the infighting within the coalition of his SPD predecessor Olaf Scholz.
Expectations were high after he secured a historic agreement for record spending on infrastructure and defence before even taking office, and made clear he intended to return Germany to the international stage as a major player.
But his own coalition has proven shaky since he took office on day one, when he became the first chancellor ever to require a second round of votes to secure formal approval of parliament.
In the summer, Merz also failed to marshal his conservatives behind the SPD’s agreed candidate for the constitutional court, dooming the vote.
“The government’s public image as ineffective, divided and poorly managed is becoming increasingly entrenched,” said Jan Techau at consulting firm Eurasia Group.
Hillje said these slip-ups demonstrated a “failure of political craftsmanship” by both Merz and the conservatives’ parliamentary leader Jens Spahn, who could have negotiated better with dissenters within their own parliamentary group.
Merz has won plaudits abroad for his strong engagement for Ukraine, but at home his popularity has sunk to around 25%, making him one of the least popular chancellors in memory.
Meanwhile combined support for the conservatives and SPD is down to 39% from 44.9% in February’s election, according to the latest poll by Forsa. The AfD, which surged into pole position in August, remains in the lead on 26%.
(Reporting by Sarah Marsh and Andreas Rinke; Editing by James Mackenzie and Mark Heinrich)
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