Dec 19 (Reuters) – The holidays may be around the corner, but the coming week has plenty to keep investors busy, from a first look at third-quarter U.S. economic activity, to the latest twists in Washington’s stand-off with Venezuela.
Traders will also be hoping for the so-called “Santa rally” to give the stock market some year-end pep.
Here’s all you need to know about what’s big in financial markets by Gregor Hunter Stuart in Singapore; Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ PLEASE, SANTA
Every year, Wall Street traders hope for a “Santa rally” – where the S&P 500 rises in the final week or two of the month and into the first week in January. It is a fairly reliable pattern, but over time, Santa has packed less of a punch.
Over the last 100 years, December has been one of the best months of the year for the index, with an average gain of around 1.28%. However, in the last 25 years, December posted an average gain of just 0.5%, while in the last five years, the S&P has seen an average loss of 0.2%. That has made December the second-worst month of the year after September, with an average loss of 1.46%.
The index has fallen in the last two weeks and the mood is fragile. Still, this won’t stop traders from hoping for a little festive sparkle in their books.
2/ DATA DIVE
Another batch of data in the coming week will give more insight to investors about the state of the U.S. economy after a government shutdown-induced fog.
As delayed releases arrive following the end of the 43-day federal government shutdown, the holiday-shortened trading week will see reports on third-quarter gross domestic product, monthly durable goods and consumer confidence. In November, U.S. consumer confidence sagged as households worried about jobs and their financial situation.
Long-awaited employment data this week showed job growth rebounded more than expected in November, although the unemployment rate stood at 4.6%, its highest level in more than four years.
Investors are eager to see if data paves the way for the Federal Reserve to further ease interest rates as the calendar flips to 2026. The U.S. central bank this month cut rates for a third-straight meeting but signalled borrowing costs are unlikely to drop further in the near term.
3/ TOO MUCH STICKY STUFF
Oil prices have fallen below $60 a barrel in recent days but there are plenty of geopolitical cross -currents for crude markets to navigate ahead – from Russia to Venezuela.
U.S. President Donald Trump believes talks toward ending the war in Ukraine are “getting close to something” ahead of a U.S. meeting with Russian officials on the weekend.
An end to the conflict could, eventually, lead to more Russian crude entering global markets – but progress has been elusive while the threat of further U.S. sanctions against Moscow remains very real.
Then there’s the supply risks posed by a U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers as Trump targets President Nicolas Maduro’s main source of income in a push to ramp up pressure on the Latin American oil behemoth.
But, while oil is set to face choppy waters ahead, the real driver of prices in the months ahead might be far more prosaic: a spike in global crude supplies, both on land and at sea.
4/ PLAYING CHICKEN
Japan, like many countries in East Asia, will work straight through the Christmas period and will skip the festivities next week – unless you include the modern tradition of eating Kentucky Fried Chicken. Yen traders working next week may require plenty of crispy tenders. On December 24, the Bank of Japan will release minutes for its October meeting, at which it kept rates on hold shortly after new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office.
On December 25, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak to Japan’s business lobby, the Keidanren. He is expected to give clues on the path of interest rates during 2026, following the central bank’s latest meeting on Friday, at which it hiked interest rates to 0.75%, the highest in three decades. Later in the week, Tokyo’s CPI print for December is also due for release on December 26.
5/ WRAPPING THINGS UP
Investors should be able to start wrapping things up after what has frankly been a wild year right from the get-go when Donald Trump re-entered the White House.
Fast forward 12 months and the post-World War Two global order looks fractured, a trade war has been waged, gold has had its best year since 1979, Europe’s weapons makers are up 65%, while the dollar is down 9%.
Everyone wants artificial intelligence and the junkiest types of debt. World stocks have added another $14 trillion even as some plain old-fashioned budget worries make the $100 trillion government bond markets nervy.
Add to that oil flirting with its biggest drop in a decade, bitcoin crashing by a third in the last three months and cocoa heading for its worst year just a year on from its best and it might just be time for that well-earned rest.
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Konkunakornkul; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
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