By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL, Dec 29 (Reuters) – South Korean exports likely rose for the seventh consecutive month in December, led by strong chip demand for artificial intelligence technologies, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy, a bellwether for global trade, were projected to have risen 9.0% from a year earlier, according to a median forecast of 11 economists.
That would be slightly faster than an 8.4% rise in November and the fastest annual increase in three months.
“Semiconductor exports remain the anchor, benefiting from AI-related demand, as well as stabilising prices of legacy memory products,” Standard Chartered economists said in a note.
Citi economists said semiconductor exports were expected to continue rising in 2026, by 56% year-on-year, after growing 23% this year, led by the global AI capex cycle.
Economists, however, also noted that most other sectors, such as steel, machinery and automobiles were seen sluggish, due to U.S. tariffs and intensifying competition.
“There is a lack of momentum in other products. The global manufacturing sector’s capex cycle will have to be revived, which is hard to expect in the near future,” said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
In the first 20 days of this month, exports rose 6.8%, led by a 41.8% jump in semiconductors, which offset declines in autos, ships and steel. Shipments to China and the U.S. rose, but those to the European Union fell.
The trade-reliant economy grew in the third quarter at the strongest pace in nearly four years, driven by robust exports and a rebound in consumer spending.
Monday’s survey also showed imports rising 2.5% in December, after growing 1.1% in November.
The median forecast for the monthly trade balance stood at a surplus of $10.0 billion. That would be wider than $9.74 billion in the previous month and the biggest since September 2017.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for December on Thursday, January 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)
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