Feb 13 (Reuters) – Much of Asia will be off to celebrate the Lunar New Year as the year of the fire horse begins, a rare combination said to pair elements of energy with volatility.
Markets will hope for signs of the former from consumer bellwether Walmart’s results, while European miners’ earnings face plenty of the latter in commodity markets. Leading economic indicators and UK data are trickling in through the week and Indonesia faces a critical central bank decision.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, and Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk and Karin Strohecker in London.
1/WELCOME TO THE CLUB
Fresh off hitting $1 trillion in market cap, Walmart will post quarterly results that offer a glimpse into consumer spending in the wake of mixed signals from U.S. economic data.
Walmart’s report on Thursday comes after recent data showed December U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat, potentially setting consumer spending on a slower growth path heading into 2026, though a surprisingly strong employment report for January eased some concerns about economic weakening.
Walmart precedes a bevy of reports from other retailers in the coming weeks, including Home Depot, Lowe’s and Target. Economic reports in the coming week include the advance reading of fourth-quarter GDP, a monthly consumer sentiment survey, and the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation measure.
2/HEAVY METAL
Europe’s four largest mining companies – Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta – are reporting earnings in the coming week, at a time when some of the metals they mine have scaled new price peaks.
Copper, gold, silver and other precious metals all recently hit records – but the relentless rally seen during January has been more sporadic this month.
The demand picture for metals is well known. Data centres need copper, as does the grid infrastructure needed to power the AI build-out. U.S. political uncertainty and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve have propelled gold – and to some extent silver – higher.
That surge has seen the four companies’ market value jump by more than $65 billion since the start of the year, despite the abandoned merger between Glencore and Rio Tinto. The group’s earnings could determine if that continues.
3/FLASH – AAH!
A lot of the uncertainties that plagued companies around the world, from Europe to the engines of “Factory Asia”, this time last year – namely, U.S. tariffs – have not exactly gone away, but they’re a lot more in hand.
And this is showing up in global surveys of business activity, which in January showed a pickup in most major economies.
Services are gathering momentum as price pressures continue to subside, while manufacturing is acting as more of a drag. The surveys don’t just tell investors what has happened. Sub-indexes on new orders, employment and pricing all give a sense of how companies are preparing for the months ahead.
With a lot of questions hanging over longer-term job security and company bottom lines from the rollout of artificial intelligence right now, investors may scour February’s flash purchasing managers’ surveys more closely than usual.
4/JOBS, PRICES AND DROWNING STREET
UK labour market data and inflation readings will provide fresh fodder for markets, even though investors are still digesting the fallout from the recent instability at the heart of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government.
Labour market numbers due on Tuesday will show if a gradual cooling of wage growth – closely watched by the Bank of England – has continued.
Attention shifts to January inflation data on Wednesday. The reading rose to 3.4% in December, down from a peak of over 11% in 2022 but still the highest in the Group of Seven economies. While lower energy prices coming into effect in April should help drag inflation closer to the BoE’s 2% target, much of that slowdown is due to one-off factors.
With political turmoil creating a febrile backdrop for sterling and gilts, markets will be sensitive to data shifts, while Fitch is due to review its UK rating on Friday.
5/STERN WARNINGS
Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting on Thursday will be closely watched by investors after MSCI threatened a downgrade to frontier market status last month, triggering a $80 billion wipeout – the country’s worst rout since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.
Soon after, Moody’s cut the country’s credit rating outlook, while rival benchmark compiler FTSE said it would postpone a scheduled index review.
The central bank could resume its easing cycle after cutting interest rates by a total of 150 basis points between September 2024 and September 2025.
Elsewhere, on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce the first monetary policy decision since Governor Anna Breman joined from Sweden’s Riksbank in December. Breman is expected to hold rates, but growth has rebounded sufficiently quickly that her next move is expected to be a hike – perhaps as soon as September.
(Graphics by Mayank Munjal and Sumanta Sen, compiled by Karin Strohecker. Editing by Mark Potter)
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