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By Clement Bonnerot
DAKAR, March 10 (Reuters) – Congo Republic President Denis Sassou Nguesso looks set to extend his decades-long rule in elections on Sunday, even as his advanced age and a term limit fuel speculation about who will eventually succeed him.
The 82-year-old former paratrooper first took power in the oil-rich Central African nation in a coup in 1979. He lost Congo Republic’s first multi-party elections in 1992 but seized power again in 1997 after a civil war.
He has now ruled for a combined total of almost 42 years, making him Africa’s third longest-serving leader, after Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang and Cameroon’s Paul Biya.
Sassou will face six candidates in an election with an organising commission dominated by figures appointed by the ruling Congolese Labour Party. Two of the main opposition parties are boycotting the vote, saying the process lacks transparency, and several potential challengers are in prison or in exile.
“This election is a mere formality. The real stakes lie in what comes next,” Remadji Hoinathy of the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies think tank said.
A 2015 constitutional reform, adopted despite opposition protests, reset the presidential term limit and allowed Sassou to stay in power. But it also capped presidents at three five-year mandates, meaning that, barring another reform, this is his last election.
UNCERTAIN FUTURE AFTER SASSOU
The president himself has begun speaking more openly about eventual succession, telling young supporters at his campaign opening rally on February 28 that his generation was “laying the groundwork” for them to take over.
One potential successor is his son, Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso, who entered government as Minister of International Cooperation and Public-Private Partnerships in 2021 and has since taken on a higher public profile.
Some analysts say he may not be ready.
“Denis-Christel does not command the same authority within the ruling party as his father and is widely unpopular. His potential accession to power threatens to unleash a violent succession struggle,” Maja Bovcon, an independent consultant focused on West and Central Africa, said.
Other figures within the ruling system who could take over are Jean-Dominique Okemba, head of Congo’s National Security Council and a nephew of the president, and Jean-Jacques Bouya, the Minister of Spatial Planning and Major Works and a cousin of Sassou’s.
“Sassou won’t leave power unless he can hand it to someone trusted in his close circle, his son or a trusted ally who guarantees stability,” Hoinathy said.
A government spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on the president’s succession plans.
GROWTH RETURNS, HARDSHIP PERSISTS
Sassou’s campaign has focused on continuity. Five years ago, his slogan was “Let us continue the march towards development”. This year, it is “Let us accelerate the march”.
For all the turbulence of Sassou’s early years in power, his country is currently one of Central Africa’s more stable states after a series of upheavals, including the 2023 coup in Gabon and last year’s post-electoral violence in Cameroon.
The economy returned to modest per-capita growth in 2024 after a decade-long recession triggered by a slump in global oil prices. Oil still accounts for about half of Congo’s GDP and 80% of its exports.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaked at 103.6% in 2020, fell to about 93.6% in 2024, and a three-year IMF programme completed last year helped stabilise public finances. Liquidity pressures remain, with debt servicing on the regional market absorbing half of the country’s tax revenues.
Sassou has promised new infrastructure upgrades, increased investment in agriculture and economic diversification, though most ordinary Congolese have seen little improvement to date.
More than half – 52% – of Congo’s 6.1 million people live in poverty, a rate unchanged since 2021, according to the World Bank. Youth unemployment is around 42% in a country where nearly half the population is under 18.
Meanwhile, French and U.S. prosecutors have launched investigations into assets held abroad by Sassou’s relatives. The family has regularly denied any wrongdoing.
“We need better health care and education,” Frédéric Nkou, a jobless voter in Brazzaville, told Reuters. “But with this new term, we will experience more of the same.”
(Reporting and writing by Clement Bonnerot in Dakar; Editing by Robbie Corey-Boulet and Andrew Heavens)
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