By Alexandra Valencia
QUITO (Reuters) – Ecuadoreans will head to the polls on Sunday to cast ballots in what is expected to be an extremely tight race for president, with both incumbent Daniel Noboa and his leftist rival Luisa Gonzalez pledging to tackle drug gangs and improve the struggling economy.
Noboa, a 37-year-old business heir, finished just 16,746 votes ahead of Gonzalez in a February first round and pollsters say either could win. Both candidates have urged their observers to guard against potential fraud.
Violence has spiked over the last five years as drug gangs have increasingly exported cocaine from Ecuador’s coast northward to the United States, stoking parallel rises in gun smuggling, fuel theft and extortion.
The economy was badly battered during COVID and recovery has been slow. The central bank estimates gross domestic product growth of 2.5% this year, while Noboa says it could reach 4% if his policies are continued.
Noboa has been president for just over 16 months, after beating Gonzalez in a 2023 race to finish out his predecessor’s term. He says he needs more time to fully enact his ‘Phoenix’ security plan, which he credits for reducing violent deaths by 15% last year.
Quito candy vendor Ivonne Acevilla, 43, said she backs Noboa.
“I support him because of what he’s done on insecurity. They should create more jobs, for entrepreneurs and the military should remain on the streets,” she said.
Gonzalez, a 47-year-old protege of former President Rafael Correa, would be the first woman elected Ecuador’s president if she wins. She has scoffed at the Phoenix plan and its deployment of 100,000 police and military nationwide, pointing to upticks in killings this year and saying Ecuadoreans remain unsafe.
Still, Gonzalez says she would send 20,000 new police on patrol if she won.
“I’m totally sure Luisa (Gonzalez) is the most prepared to govern and fight the crime that thousands of Ecuadoreans are immersed in,” said Guayaquil business administration student Jorge Granda, 25.
Gonzalez has also pledged to spend $72 million on peace advisers in violent neighborhoods, who would work with police to stop the gang recruitment of young people. That prompted Noboa to say this week the money would be better spent on hiring more cops and soldiers.
Gonzalez has said she, not Correa, will govern if she wins, but lawmakers from their Citizen Revolution party have suggested the former president could return to Ecuador.
Correa, who has lived in Belgium since he left office in 2017, was convicted in absentia in 2020 on corruption charges and sentenced to eight years in prison.
He says that conviction and those against dozens of other officials from his administration are political persecution.
Whoever wins, they will have difficulty passing legislation in the national assembly, Fitch Ratings said in a Wednesday note. Citizen Revolution won 67 seats in February and Noboa’s National Democratic Action won 66, both short of a majority.
Noboa could be forced to dilute his planned reforms, Fitch said, while a Gonzalez win would “extend and heighten policy uncertainties” on her suggestion of external debt negotiations and central bank financing of the budget.
(Reporting by Alexandra Valencia in Quito, additional reporting by Yury Garcia in Guayaquil; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Rosalba O’Brien)
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