By Kirsty Needham
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia will hold a general election on Saturday, with polls indicating Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ruling centre-left Labor is ahead of opposition leader Peter Dutton’s conservative Liberal-National coalition.
Several polls predict Labor may need to form a minority government, the first in more than a decade. Australians are increasingly voting for independents and outside the main parties, expanding the ranks of such cross-benchers to 19 after the 2022 election, out of 150 seats.
Here are the potential outcomes of the vote and what they would mean:
MAJORITY LABOR GOVERNMENT
Albanese would continue as prime minister, naming a new Cabinet from among elected Labor parliamentarians. He has said he would travel to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump “very early on” if re-elected as Prime Minister in the May 3 election.
MINORITY LABOR GOVERNMENT
This is likely, according to polls.
Labor is on a notional 78 seats, just two more than the minimum for a majority, and could lose outer metropolitan seats in the biggest states where cost-of-living pressures are a major concern for voters, analysts said.
If a member of the cross-bench is appointed as speaker, Labor could govern with 75 seats.
After an election, the prime minister remains in the role until they resign, which means the incumbent holds the advantage in negotiations over a hung parliament, said Anne Twomey, a constitutional law expert at the University of Sydney.
During the campaign, Albanese said he would not do a deal to form a government with the Greens party, which held four seats in the previous parliament, or with independents.
Seven “Teal” independents won seats from the Liberals in 2022 by supporting climate change and gender equality, positions also supported by centre-left Labor.
Albanese could reach agreements with cross-benchers for “confidence and supply” without policy strings attached, Twomey said. This is a guarantee from enough independents or minor parties who hold the balance of power that they will support the government if there is a vote of no confidence, and will vote to pass appropriation spending bills so the government can provide services and pay public servants.
She added that the Greens are unlikely to support a conservative Dutton government on ideological and policy grounds, while the Teals could split.
This could give Labor an upper hand in negotiations for a minority government if it is only a few seats short of a 76-seat majority.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
In this scenario, independents and minor parties would be the kingmakers.
In the last hung parliament in 2010, the major parties were tied on 72 seats. The Labor and Liberal-National leaders courted a handful of independents and a Green, striking policy deals in exchange for support, during negotiations that stretched on for weeks.
Labor won more support and its minority government lasted three years. But there was acrimony over broken deals and Tasmanian independent and anti-gambling campaigner Andrew Wilkie, who entered parliament in 2010, has said he will not enter another such deal.
Any agreement between the prime minister and a cross-bench member for support is only a political agreement and is not legally binding, said Twomey.
“A member of parliament cannot contract away their vote,” she said, citing court decisions on the matter.
MINORITY LIBERAL-NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
The Liberal-National coalition would have to make a large gain, from 53 seats in the previous parliament, to be within striking range of 76 seats, and polling shows this is unlikely.
The most likely cross-bench partners for the Liberal-Nationals would be Teals in wealthy urban seats, and maverick 79-year-old Queensland independent Bob Katter, a former conservative who has represented a vast rural electorate for three decades. Katter refused to support the Labor minority government in 2010.
MAJORITY LIBERAL-NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
A Liberal-National coalition ruled for nine years before its 2022 election loss, so if the polling is wrong, cost-of-living pressures could drive voters to return a conservative government.
(Reporting by Kirsty Needham in Sydney; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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