By Mike Dolan
– What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Wall Street looks set to firm up on Monday after last week’s tech sector wobble, with Nvidia earnings due on Wednesday and official U.S. government data returning against doused Federal Reserve easing speculation.
Awaiting results from chip giant Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, market jitters over stretched valuations of AI-related stocks seem to have calmed.
After Friday’s sharp intraday bounce, Nasdaq futures are up about 0.6% ahead of today’s bell. However, digital token Bitcoin, which has been behaving in line with tech stock sentiment of late, continued to fall over the weekend and hit its lowest since April – nursing its largest weekly fall since March and down 26% from last month’s peak at its low.
Reports of widespread hedging of AI equity positions by buying credit default swaps in indebted tech names such as Oracle and CoreWeave have drawn attention to emerging leverage in the tech boom and nervousness among equity bulls.
Chip stocks got a lift in Asia earlier, however, as South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix both jumped after reports Samsung Electronics had raised prices of certain memory chips – now in short supply due to the global race to build AI data centres – by as much as 60% compared to September.
The macro fixation of the week will be the return of U.S. economic data, with September’s payrolls report on Thursday expected to be firm but likely too far out of date now to affect market or policy considerations looking forward. The New York Fed’s November manufacturing survey out later today may give a more up-to-date glimpse of activity.
As it stands, Fed hawks on Friday continued to push back against another interest rate cut this year and money markets now only put a 40% chance of another reduction next month. A quarter point Fed cut is now not fully priced until March.
A number of the Fed’s top brass speak again on Monday.
There was also attention on how the Fed is managing recent money market tightness, something that has pushed it to end its balance sheet runoff from December.
New York Fed President John Williams met with Wall Street banks last Wednesday to discuss a key short-term lending facility, a New York Fed spokesperson told Reuters on Friday after reports of the meeting circulated.
“President Williams convened the New York Fed’s primary trading counterparties to continue engagement on the purpose of the standing repo facility as a tool of monetary policy implementation and to solicit feedback that ensures it remains effective for rate control,” the spokesperson said.
U.S. Treasury yields backed off highs, after the 30-year bond yield hit its highest in over a month earlier.
The dollar was slightly firmer, with Japan’s yen edging lower after GDP there contracted in the third quarter for the first time in six quarters – even though by less than forecast. U.S. tariff hits were mainly responsible for the downturn.
Elsewhere, stocks were more mixed to start the week. Asia shares were mostly lower – with the exception of a near 2% rally in South Korea’s KOSPI index on the higher chip stocks there. European stocks were down about 0.5%.
In politics, attention was on President Donald Trump’s decision to urge fellow Republicans in Congress to vote for the release of files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, reversing his earlier resistance to the move.
Japan, meantime, moved to tamp down an escalating row with China over Taiwan that has prompted Beijing to urge citizens to halt travel to its East Asian neighbour.
In today’s column, I take a look at how the euro – rather than the dollar or even the yen – appeared to gain as U.S. tech giants wobbled yet again last week and why that may be.
Today’s Market Minute
Chart of the day
The world’s best-known digital token Bitcoin dropped to its lowest since April on Monday, after it continued to fall over the weekend despite a bounce in wobbling tech shares on Friday. At its low at about $93,000 earlier, it was some 26% below the record peak set early last month and technically in a “bear market”.
Today’s events to watch (all times EDT)
* New York Federal Reserve’s November manufacturing survey (0830), U.S. August construction spending (1000), and Canada October consumer price inflation (0830).
* Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari all speak; European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos, ECB chief economist Philip Lane and ECB board member Piero Cipollone all speak.
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Mike Dolan; Editing by Ed Osmond)
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