By Anna Szymanski
LONDON, December 5 (Reuters) – Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers!
We’ve entered the final month of the year, and that means one thing: 2026 market outlooks. While it’s tough to find many U.S. equity bears, forecasts are arriving with quite a few qualifiers – which is understandable given that so much is riding on an artificial intelligence boom that’s shrouded in uncertainty.
AI adoption might truly take off next year, but as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan argues, U.S. GDP growth is likely still going to be constrained by a 150-year 2% trendline, especially if technological innovation runs up against supply chain or labor market bottlenecks.
Speaking of the U.S. labor market, the picture there is once again clear as mud. On Wednesday, U.S. private payrolls for November came in at negative 32,000 – well below consensus and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years. Yet Thursday brought news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits had slid to the lowest level in a more than three years.
And despite all the talk of a K-shaped economy, a slice of consumer delinquency figures suggests the U.S. economic picture might not be so grim.
On top of that, fears about foreign investors souring on U.S. stocks may also be misplaced. Overseas private sector inflows into U.S. stocks are running at record-high levels, having re-accelerated in recent months. The big question now is whether this can be sustained next year.
Over in Asia, Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to its highest point since 2007 on Friday, shooting up over 25 bps in four weeks, even as the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sought to soothe investor concerns about her $137 billion spending plan.
The battered yen continues to hover around 155 to the dollar, near the higher end of its multi-decade range. The currency’s seemingly excessive weakness may be a ticking time bomb, argues Eurizon SLJ CEO Stephen Jen.
In energy markets, the week started off with OPEC+ announcing that it would keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter. But uncertainty surrounding sanctioned volumes complicates the market outlook.
Staying with OPEC+, changes its making to its oil production quota system could spark a wave of upstream investments.
Meanwhile, in the gas market, Europe is preparing to phase out Russian imports by 2027. ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire explains which countries will be most affected.
Over in metals, copper continues its bull run, but this boom does not mean global manufacturing is firing up commensurately heading into 2026.
Looking to next week, the main event is the Federal Reserve meeting. A 25 bps cut is all but guaranteed, but Fed-watchers will pay close attention to the number of dissents, as this may speak to the growing divisions in a body long known for consensus.
The real Fed story, however, remains Present Donald Trump’s selection of the next Chair. Mike Dolan argues that if White House adviser Kevin Hassett is selected – as Trump has hinted – he will effectively serve as a “shadow Fed Chair” for five months – with markets hanging on his every word.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at
This weekend, we’re reading… CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: You don’t need to be a chess player to appreciate the story of Sarwagya Singh Kushwaha, the youngest player in chess history to earn an official FIDE rating before the age of four. RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: A picture is worth a thousand words. That’s why I recommend looking at this exquisite collection of the Reuters’ top photographs of 2025, selected from the 1.6 million photos released to clients this year. And what a year it’s been… GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This updated high-def map of U.S. Data Center infrastructure created by the chief cartographer at the recently renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a thing of beauty. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The U.S. – and the world – is experiencing an intense speculative AI boom. To get a sense of where it might lead, economics professors Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli look back and Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes”. The book, published in 1978, raises three fundamental questions relevant to today. We’re listening to… MIKE DOLAN, ROI Editor-at-Large: It’s not often you get a podcast on ‘r*’! With the Fed meeting up next week, this Brookings podcast on the theoretical ‘neutral’ rate of interest shows how the shocks of recent years may see this rate creeping higher after years of decline. JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ fame doesn’t really do media beyond his often cryptic posts on X – and interviews are even rarer. But fast forward through about 6-7 minutes of ads and intro, and you get one here on the ‘Against the Rules’ podcast with author Michael Lewis.
And we’re watching…
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: We’ve just launched the Morning Bid daily podcast, which will be available in audio and video. Subscribe to hear and see ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
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Opinions expressed are those of authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Anna Szymanski)
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