BANGUI, Dec 25 (Reuters) – Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera is seeking a third term in an election on Sunday, campaigning on security gains after signing deals with rebel groups and enlisting support from Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces.
He faces six opposition candidates including Anicet-Georges Dologuele, a former prime minister and runner-up in the 2020 election, but is likely to win in part due to his control over state institutions, analysts say.
Such a result would likely further the interests of Russia, which has traded security assistance for access to resources including gold and diamonds. Touadera is also offering access to the country’s lithium and uranium reserves to anyone interested.
The 68-year-old mathematician took power in 2016 after the worst crisis in the chronically unstable country’s history, when three years of intercommunal strife forced a fifth of the population to flee their homes, either internally or abroad.
Touadera has signed peace deals this year with several rebel groups, while others have been weakened in the face of Russian mercenaries and troops from Rwanda deployed to shore up Touadera’s government as well as U.N. peacekeepers.
“During the 10 years that we have been working together, you yourselves have seen that peace is beginning to return, starting from all our borders and reaching the capital,” Touadera told a rally at a stadium in the capital Bangui this month.
His opponents, meanwhile, have denounced a constitutional referendum in 2023 that scrapped the presidential term limit, saying it was proof Touadera wants to be president for life.
They have also accused him of failing to make significant progress towards lifting the 5.5 million population out of poverty.
“The administrative infrastructure has been destroyed and, as you know, the roads are in a very poor state of repair,” Dologuele told a recent press conference.
“In short, the Central African economy is in ruins.”
SECURITY THREATS REMAIN DESPITE PEACE DEALS
The presidential contest is taking place alongside legislative, regional and municipal elections, with provisional results expected to be announced by January 5.
If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a presidential runoff will take place on February 15, while legislative runoffs will take place on April 5.
A smooth voting process could reinforce Touadera’s claim that stability is returning, which was buttressed last year with the U.N. Security Council’s lifting of an arms embargo and the lifting of a separate embargo on diamond exports.
“The fact that these measures were lifted, it shows that we’re gradually getting back to normal. Or at least that’s the narrative,” said Romain Esmenjaud, associate researcher at the Institut Francais de Geopolitique.
The peace deals are credited with a decline in violence in some areas and an expected boost in economic growth projections to 3% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has said the U.N. should hand security back to the government soon.
But serious security threats remain. Rebels have not fully disarmed, reintegration is incomplete, and incursions by combatants from neighbouring Sudan fuel insecurity in the east.
Pangea-Risk, a consultancy, wrote in a note to clients that the risk of unrest after the election was high as opponents were likely to challenge Touadera’s expected victory.
“The election will take place in an atmosphere marked by heightened grievances over political marginalization, increasing repression, and allegations of electoral fraud,” said chief executive Robert Besseling.
Dologuele alleged fraud after he was recorded as winning 21.6% of the vote in 2020, when rebel groups still threatened the capital and prevented voting at 800 polling stations across the country, or 14% of the total. A court upheld Touadera’s win.
Paul-Crescent Beninga, a political analyst, said voters will be closely scrutinising the voting and counting processes.
“If they do not go well, it gives those who promote violence an excuse to mobilise violence and sow panic among the population of the Central African Republic. So that is why we must ensure that the elections take place in relatively acceptable conditions,” he said.
(Reporting by Pacome Pabandji, Jessica Donati and Robbie Corey-Boulet; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
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