By Makiko Yamazaki
TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports posted the biggest jump in more than three years in January, data showed on Wednesday, boosted by strong Asian demand reflecting front-loading shipments ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holidays.
The outcome follows separate data this week that showed the economy limped back to meagre growth in the fourth quarter, significantly missing market forecasts due to weaker-than-expected exports and capital expenditure.
Total exports by value rose 16.8% year-on-year in January, data showed, the largest increase since November 2022 and exceeding a median market forecast for a 12% increase. They rose for a fifth consecutive month, following a 5.1% rise in December.
Exports to China jumped 32%, boosted by a surge in demand ahead of the Lunar New Year in mid-February, later than usual, while those to Asia rose 25.8%. The European Union-bound exports expanded 29.6%.
In contrast, exports to the U.S. fell 5% in January from a year earlier.
Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, said the surge in January appeared largely due to temporary factors.
“This probably means that February may see a pullback larger than anticipated. But if you average out January and February, the pace is likely to end up being about the same as at the end of last year,” he said.
Imports dropped 2.5% from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 3% increase.
As a result, Japan ran a trade deficit of 1.15 trillion yen ($7.51 billion) in January, compared with the forecast of a 2.14 trillion yen deficit.
Japan’s exports have been recovering after an initial blow from U.S. tariffs dragged down U.S. shipments in the July-September quarter, but momentum has remained fragile despite a September trade deal with Washington that set a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all goods.
Analysts expect the Japanese economy to gather momentum with the help of domestic drivers such as private consumption, with wage growth expected to ease the burden on households from rising living costs.
“Although the impact of the Trump tariffs has largely run its course, they are still undoubtedly holding back global growth, so we shouldn’t expect strong momentum in exports,” Minami said.
“But the Japanese economy should be able to achieve modest growth if inflation wanes and consumers gradually get used to higher food prices and ease up on their frugality,” he added.
($1 = 153.2000 yen)
(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Stephen Coates)
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