April 1 (Reuters) – The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved Eli Lilly’s weight-loss pill, bringing another oral alternatives to a market dominated by injectables and intensifying competition with Novo Nordisk, which sells oral Wegovy.
Lilly’s orforglipron, branded Foundayo, is a once-daily oral medication designed to mimic the appetite-suppressing GLP-1 hormone targeted by the company’s blockbuster injection tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss.
Below are some reactions from analysts.
Parth Talsania, Equisights Research analyst
“Absence of dosing restrictions (for Foundayo) is a clear adherence lever and should support stronger conversion among new-to-therapy patients.”
“For Novo, the risk is not immediate share loss but incremental pressure on patient starts and pricing as Lilly expands access points. Overall, in a nutshell, we believe Lilly’s early approval of orforglipron strengthens its competitive positioning in GLP-1s.”
Chris Schott, J.P. Morgan analyst
“With this approval, we see the company (Lilly) well positioned with multiple potential sources of upside to numbers over the next several years.”
“We anticipate strong uptake of Foundayo… (but) expect inital Foundayo volumes to ramp more slowly relative to Oral Wegovy with a more significant inflection in 2H26/2027+. As such, we expect a solid initial volume ramp, but one that may trend below that of Oral Wegovy.”
Geoff Meacham, Citi analyst
“Despite launching second behind Novo’s Wegovy pill, we think Foundayo’s superior ease-of-use more than offsets its 2.2% efficacy deficit and positions it to eventually capture the lion’s share of this rapidly expanding market. Crucially, the earlier-than-expected approval enables full participation in the upcoming broad Medicare access volume ramp.”
“Clean safety label and crucially, no food restriction requirements that, altogether, underpin our 2026 $2.8 billion forecast.”
Michael Yee, UBS analyst
“There is some debate on how LLY’s oral market share will play out given consensus for oral Wegovy has moved up from (about) $800 million earlier this year given a solid launch so far. But all this bodes well for LLY.”
Louise Chen, Scotiabank analyst
“We expect orforglipron to be more popular in most markets outside the U.S.”
Carter Gould, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst
“While it’s unclear how broad commercial access will be ‘out of the gate’, or how it will ramp in those first few months, we see this as seizing some of the attention on the pricing front from Novo, and helping drive conversations and conversion.”
(Reporting by Mrinalika Roy and Christy Santhosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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