July 24 (Reuters) – Barclays said on Friday that risks to its oil price forecasts are skewed higher depending on how long the “impasse” over the Strait of Hormuz lasts.
In a scenario in which the current situation lasts for another one, two, or three months, Barclays thinks there could be a $2 per barrel, $7/bbl or $10/bbl upside risk, respectively, to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast.
Oil prices spiked to $100 a barrel for the first time since May this week, as renewed hostilities revived investor worries over global supply disruptions from a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased to just below $100 on Friday.[O/R]
“As is generally the case, spot price will likely lead the move and could test $150/bbl in the 3-months scenario,” the bank said in a note.
The Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of global energy supplies before the conflict began.
Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its $96/bbl and $85/bbl Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
The conflict has deepened forecasts of a global oil deficit in 2026, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, but recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and weaker demand from China are expected to tip the market into an oversupply in 2027.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Nia Williams and Deepa Babington)
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